MIFE — Spotting Bug Forecast

Use this forecast to decide when orchard monitoring should be intensified. Choose the nearest region and current crop stage to see whether combined FSB/BSB activity is low, building or declining over the next 14 days.

What the forecast shows and how to read the 0–100 index

MIFE combines regional temperature and rainfall with spotting bug biology. It provides one combined forecast for fruitspotting bug (FSB, Amblypelta nitida) and banana spotting bug (BSB, A. lutescens lutescens); separate species curves are not produced. Most field validation evidence is for FSB, so BSB-specific performance remains less certain.

The index is relative and has no units: 100 is the highest modelled nymph-plus-adult activity within each scenario during the displayed season. Low is 0–<10, moderate 10–<30, high 30–<70 and very high 70–100. These are activity bands—not economic, damage or treatment thresholds. For the simplified grower display, these are grouped as Low (0–<10), Medium (10–<30) and High (30–100). See the grower manual for model details.

Forecast settings

Choose a region and crop stage. No orchard sample is required for regional early warning.

Nearest representative region

Select the named regional weather point nearest the orchard. It is a representative coordinate, not an orchard weather station.

Orchard location and a dated field observation are required.

Locality or nearest townState

Enter locality and state, or provide both coordinates below. Coordinates are used only to obtain local gridded weather.

Latitude (optional)

Longitude (optional)

Weather sourceLive regional weather

Recent observations and the available weather forecast are obtained for the selected representative regional coordinate.

Current macadamia crop stage

Crop stage changes the monitoring interpretation, not the regional insect population curve.

Change forecast-through date

Forecast through

For a current outlook, leave the default date unchanged. Live weather normally extends approximately two weeks.

Current orchard sampling (required)

Combine FSB and BSB and apply the same tree-based scouting method consistently. Other methods may have different detection efficiency from the research drop-sheet calibration.

Sampling date Sampling method FSB/BSB observed Trees sampled Trees where FSB/BSB was detected Row spacing (m) Tree spacing within row (m) Trees per hectare

Use the orchard’s known density, or calculate it from spacing. The editable 300 trees/ha value is only a starting estimate.

Most recent FSB/BSB-targeted spray

Observed bugs per sampled tree—

Observed per 100 sampled trees—

Sampling-equivalent bugs/ha—

Trees with a detection—

Field-adjusted today (bugs/ha)Run outlook

Field-adjusted in 7 days (bugs/ha)—

Field-adjusted in 14 days (bugs/ha)—

Bugs/ha values are sampling-equivalent planning estimates: the observed bugs per sampled tree multiplied by trees/ha. They do not represent a census of every insect in the orchard and are not an economic or treatment threshold.

Loading regions…

Optional nut-damage check

Record damage separately from the live-insect forecast. Always enter the number of nuts examined.

Nuts examined Nuts stung by FSB/BSB Nuts with other or unidentified pest damage Sampled ground/plot area (m², optional)

Observed FSB/BSB damage—

Approx. 95% interval—

FSB/BSB-damaged nuts/m²—

Nut damage may have accumulated before today and does not rescale the current insect population forecast.

Your regional monitoring outlook

Monitoring priorityNot assessedSelect a crop stage.

What to do: Choose a region and show the outlook.

Orchard-adjusted sampling outlook

Today—Sampling-equivalent bugs/ha

In 7 days—Sampling-equivalent bugs/ha

In 14 days—Sampling-equivalent bugs/ha

Anchored by the submitted field observation and projected with local weather. This is not a census or treatment threshold.

Seasonal orchard projection

Run the orchard forecast to generate a projection beyond the live-weather period.

Daily weather forecastHistorical-weather projection

How to read this graph: The solid section uses available daily forecast weather. After the marked boundary, the dashed median and shaded range use five historical weather seasons combined with three biological scenarios. Values are sampling-equivalent planning estimates—not an orchard census, damage probability or treatment threshold.

Projected seasonal peak window: —

Regional activity today—

Recent direction—

7- and 14-day regional forecast—

Most common stage today—

Activity level: Low, Medium and High describe relative modelled population activity. They are not treatment thresholds.

Live weather available through —.

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How this monitoring priority was determined

Monitoring-priority evidence

The tool considers regional activity, crop stage and any orchard observations separately.

Regional activityRun outlookWeather-driven population timing.

Crop exposureNot assessedSelect the current BBCH stage.

Orchard evidenceNot enteredAdd a current field sample when available.

Integrated monitoring priorityNot assessedThis is not a damage probability, economic threshold or pesticide-treatment recommendation.

Seasonal population activity

Predicted seasonal peak window: —. This is the highest modelled nymph-plus-adult activity period, not automatically the highest crop-risk period.

How to read this graph: 100 marks the highest modelled nymph-plus-adult activity in each scenario during the displayed period; it is not a bug count. The dark line is the middle result across nine biological scenarios, and the green band shows their full range. Background zones show the grower activity guide: green = Low (0–<10), amber = Medium (10–<30), orange = High (30–100). Pale blue indicates future weather; the dashed line marks today.

Modelled relative composition. Eggs, nymphs and adults are component-wise scenario medians rescaled to total 100% each day. They are not observed counts, bugs per tree or bugs per hectare.

Choose a weather series and run the forecast.